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Apple (AAPL) valuation

Run six valuation models on Apple with live data: DCF, Reverse DCF, Graham number, Monte Carlo, scenarios and sum-of-the-parts (NAV).

AAPL
AAPL

Apple

AAPL · Technology

Current price

302,32 USD

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Valuation

Market cap
$4.41T
PE (TTM | NTM | +1y)
34.67 | 31.80 | 31.71
Price / Sales
9.45
EV / EBITDA
26.63
Price / Book
41.08

Cash flow

FCF yield(7.38 / 302.32)
+2.44%
SBC-adjusted FCF yield(6.44 / 302.32)
+2.13%
SBC impact
-12.72%

Margins & growth

Profit margin
+27.62%
Operating margin
+32.62%
Quarterly earnings (YoY)
+27.12%
Quarterly revenue (YoY)
+16.36%

Balance

Cash
$62.4B
Debt
$84.34B
Net position
-$21.94B

Dividend

Dividend yield
+0.35%
Payout ratio
+12.04%
Next payout
8/13/2026

Price (1 year)

+30.54%
$333.74

Revenue

estimate
Q2 23: $94.84BQ2 23Q3 23: $81.8BQ3 23: $89.5BQ4 23: $119.58BQ4 23Q1 24: $90.75BQ2 24: $85.78BQ3 24: $94.93BQ3 24Q4 24: $124.3BQ2 25: $94.04BQ3 25: $102.47BQ3 25Q4 25: $143.76BQ1 26: $111.18BQ2 26: $109.42BQ2 26Q3 26 · estimate: $113.55BQ3 26$143.76B

EBITDA

Q2 25: $31.03BQ2 25Q3 25: $35.55BQ3 25Q4 25: $54.07BQ4 25Q1 26: $39.32BQ1 26Q2 26: $39.02BQ2 26$54.07B

Net income

Q2 23: $24.16BQ2 23Q3 23: $19.88BQ3 23: $22.96BQ4 23: $33.92BQ4 23Q1 24: $23.64BQ2 24: $21.45BQ3 24: $14.74BQ3 24Q4 24: $36.33BQ2 25: $23.43BQ3 25: $27.47BQ3 25Q4 25: $42.1BQ1 26: $29.58BQ2 26: $29.79BQ2 26$42.1B

Free cash flow

Q4 23: $37.5BQ4 23Q4 24: $27BQ2 25: $24.41BQ2 25Q3 25: $26.49BQ4 25: $51.55BQ4 25Q1 26: $26.73BQ2 26: $31.91BQ2 26$51.55B

EPS

estimate
Q2 23: 1.52Q2 23Q3 23: 1.26Q3 23: 1.47Q4 23: 2.18Q4 23Q1 24: 1.53Q2 24: 1.40Q3 24: 0.97Q3 24Q4 24: 2.40Q2 25: 1.57Q3 25: 1.85Q3 25Q4 25: 2.84Q1 26: 2.01Q2 26: 2.02Q2 26Q3 26 · estimate: 1.98Q3 262.84

Cash & debt

CashDebt
Q2 23 · Cash: $24.69BQ2 23Q3 23 · Cash: $28.41BQ3 23 · Cash: $29.97BQ4 23 · Cash: $40.76BQ4 23Q1 24 · Cash: $32.7BQ2 24 · Cash: $25.57BQ3 24 · Cash: $29.94BQ3 24Q4 24 · Cash: $30.3BQ2 25 · Cash: $36.27BQ2 25 · Debt: $101.7BQ3 25 · Cash: $35.93BQ3 25 · Debt: $98.66BQ3 25Q4 25 · Cash: $45.32BQ4 25 · Debt: $90.51BQ1 26 · Cash: $45.57BQ1 26 · Debt: $84.71BQ2 26 · Cash: $39.54BQ2 26 · Debt: $84.34BQ2 26$101.7B

Return of capital

DividendsBuybacks
Q4 23 · Dividends: $3.83BQ4 23 · Buybacks: $20.14BQ4 23Q4 24 · Dividends: $3.86BQ4 24 · Buybacks: $23.61BQ2 25 · Dividends: $3.95BQ2 25 · Buybacks: $21.08BQ2 25Q3 25 · Dividends: $3.86BQ3 25 · Buybacks: $20.13BQ4 25 · Dividends: $3.92BQ4 25 · Buybacks: $24.7BQ4 25Q1 26 · Dividends: $3.82BQ1 26 · Buybacks: $12.29BQ2 26 · Dividends: $4.04BQ2 26 · Buybacks: $25.11BQ2 26$29.14B

Shares outstanding

Q1 23: 15.82BQ1 23Q2 23: 15.72BQ2 23: 15.73BQ3 23: 15.65BQ3 23: 15.63BQ3 23Q3 23: 15.55BQ4 23: 15.55BQ4 23: 15.46BQ1 24: 15.44BQ1 24Q1 24: 15.34BQ2 24: 15.33BQ2 24: 15.22BQ3 24: 15.2BQ3 24Q3 24: 15.12BQ4 24: 15.12BQ4 24: 15.04BQ1 25: 15.02BQ1 25Q2 25: 14.86BQ3 25: 14.77BQ4 25: 14.7BQ1 26: 14.67BQ2 26: 14.69BQ2 2615.82B

Stock-based compensation

Q4 23: $3BQ4 23Q4 24: $3.29BQ2 25: $3.17BQ2 25Q3 25: $3.18BQ4 25: $3.59BQ4 25Q1 26: $3.53BQ2 26: $3.4BQ2 26$3.59B

Operating expenses

R&DSG&A
Q2 23 · R&D: $7.46BQ2 23 · SG&A: $6.2BQ2 23Q3 23 · R&D: $7.44BQ3 23 · SG&A: $5.97BQ3 23 · R&D: $7.31BQ3 23 · SG&A: $6.15BQ4 23 · R&D: $7.7BQ4 23 · SG&A: $6.79BQ4 23Q1 24 · R&D: $7.9BQ1 24 · SG&A: $6.47BQ2 24 · R&D: $8.01BQ2 24 · SG&A: $6.32BQ3 24 · R&D: $7.77BQ3 24 · SG&A: $6.52BQ3 24Q4 24 · R&D: $8.27BQ4 24 · SG&A: $7.18BQ2 25 · R&D: $8.87BQ2 25 · SG&A: $6.65BQ3 25 · R&D: $8.87BQ3 25 · SG&A: $7.05BQ3 25Q4 25 · R&D: $10.89BQ4 25 · SG&A: $7.49BQ1 26 · R&D: $11.42BQ1 26 · SG&A: $7.48BQ2 26 · R&D: $11.73BQ2 26 · SG&A: $7.35BQ2 26$19.08B

Source: Yahoo Finance. Quarterly history grows automatically over time as new quarters are published.

Qualitative analysis

TrimmTrack analysis

Apple combina un ecosistema tancat amb una marca premium que li dona poder de fixació de preus i uns ingressos de serveis cada cop més recurrents; el debat és el preu que es paga per aquesta qualitat.

Competitive advantages

  • Ecosistema integrat (iPhone, App Store, iCloud, serveis) amb alts costos de canvi que retenen l'usuari.
  • Marca premium amb poder de fixació de preus i marges bruts al voltant del 45%.
  • Base instal·lada de més de 2.200 milions de dispositius actius que alimenta ingressos recurrents de serveis.
  • Forta generació de flux de caixa lliure i recompres que redueixen les accions any rere any.

Investment risks

  • Dependència de l'iPhone: encara al voltant del 50% dels ingressos en un mercat de smartphones madur.
  • Risc regulatori sobre l'App Store i sobre els pagaments de Google per ser el cercador per defecte.
  • Exposició a la Xina, tant en vendes com en cadena de subministrament.
  • Valoració exigent: un PER elevat deixa poc marge si el creixement decebés.

Other comparisons

Apple vs Microsoft

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