Analysis & Investment Ideas
Fundamental analysis, valuation models and investment theses. Free access, no sign-up.
AppLovin: Buying the Growth the Market Stopped Explaining
AppLovin trades roughly 46% below its December 2025 high even though revenue grew 59% and EBITDA margins hit a record. The discount is about trust in how the money is made — short-seller reports and an open SEC probe — not about the numbers themselves.
Meta: The Market Reads the Capex Bill and Ignores What It Is Buying
With the stock at $583 and consensus stuck on a noisy headlines, the bullish case is simpler than it looks: the advertising machine pays for the AI revolution. Fair value today is ~$843; near $1,200 over five years. A Google style re-valuation is possible.
Buying Netflix: DCA Strategy
The DCA strategy is deliberately simple. For every 20 Netflix shares I ultimately want to own, I would buy 4 shares around $75–78, add 7 more around $62–64, and reserve the final 9 shares for the $45–47 zone. The idea is not to predict the exact bottom, but to increase conviction as the valuation improves. If the stock rebounds from the current level, the first tranche gives me exposure. If the correction deepens, I can build a larger position at progressively better prices.
EXOR N.V: Buying the Agnelli Po
It is a family-controlled European holding company, its structure is more complicated than that of a normal operating business, and several of its largest investments are currently going through difficult periods.